Tarique Rahman’s Big Win: A New Balancing Act for India, China and Pakistan
The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by Tarique Rahman, has stormed back to power with a landslide victory, bagging 211 out of 299 seats in the 13th national elections. This comeback is set to reshape Dhaka’s ties with India, Pakistan and China, while raising fresh questions about the country’s future direction.
Rahman’s Bangladesh-First Pitch
Rahman has made it clear that his foreign policy will be “Bangladesh-first,” steering clear of being seen as a camp follower of either Delhi or Rawalpindi. Yet, with the economy in tatters, Bangladesh will need India’s support to get back on track — a move that may not sit well with Pakistan and China, who have been trying to woo Dhaka with their own agendas.
India’s Dilemma: Inclusive Partner or Divisive Hardliner?
India is watching closely. In recent months, Bangladesh has witnessed horrific attacks on minorities, especially Hindus, at the hands of radical groups. For New Delhi, Rahman’s stance on minority safety will be a litmus test. Will he push for an inclusive Bangladesh, or lean towards hardline politics?
The Return of BNP
Rahman contested from Bogura-6 and Dhaka-17, winning both seats. His return after nearly 17 years in the UK was marked by massive rallies and a surge of support for BNP. This victory signals a dramatic shift in Bangladesh’s political landscape.
India-Bangladesh Relations: A Reset in Sight?
Relations soured in 2024 after Sheikh Hasina’s fall and BNP’s criticism of India’s perceived backing of her Awami League. But signs of recalibration are already visible. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s letter of condolence after the death of Rahman’s mother, Khaleda Zia, hinted at a willingness to reset ties. Following BNP’s win, Modi congratulated Rahman, stressing India’s commitment to a democratic and inclusive Bangladesh.
What Next?
Rahman’s balancing act will be tricky. He must rebuild Bangladesh’s economy with India’s help, while managing the expectations of China and Pakistan. His Bangladesh-first policy may sound neutral, but the choices he makes will determine whether Dhaka leans towards Delhi, Rawalpindi, or carves out an independent path.
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